PRIVACY STATEMENT

In registering for this conference, relevant details will be incorporated into a delegate list. These details may be made available to parties directly related to the conference including East Coast Conferences, Floodplain Management Australia, venues, accommodation providers (for the purposes of room bookings), key sponsors, exhibitors and parties associated with the conference. By completing this registration form, you acknowledge that the details supplied by you may be used for the above purposes. You will have the opportunity in the next section of this form to opt-out of having your details included on the list of attendees that will be provided to sponsors and / or exhibitors.

This workshop will focus on the new Monte Carlo engine in the Storm Injector software. Storm Injector is widely used throughout Australia for ensemble design event modelling based on ‘Australian Rainfall and Runoff – A Guide to Flood Estimation’ (Ball et al, 2019) (ARR2019). It works with WBNM, URBS, RORB, HEC-HMS and XP-RAFTS. Recently, Storm Injector has been extended to include a user-friendly yet powerful Monte Carlo engine. During this workshop, attendees will receive a brief overview of the traditional ARR2019 ensemble approach to serve as a baseline for comparison before undertaking a Monte Carlo simulation on the same catchment. By the conclusion of the workshop, attendees will be able to apply both approaches, compare their results and understand the advantages and disadvantages of each method.

For those unfamiliar with Storm Injector, it is used to consistently apply ARR2019 design storm modelling techniques using common hydrologic models in Australia. Storm Injector can import your model, determine latitude and longitude for subareas and automatically download the ARR Data Hub and IFD information. IFD datasets can be spatially distributed across model subareas and ARR2019 Point or Areal temporal patterns can be applied for common AEPs. A number of approaches to burst losses are available including pre-burst adjustment, probability neutral losses or full pre-burst modelling using pre-burst temporal patterns. Advanced features including embedded burst smoothing, baseflow consideration, sorting of ensemble results based on metrics besides peak flow and at-site IFD comparisons are included. Storm Injector also fully supports the new climate change considerations chapter in ARR including the ability to model the upper and lower bounds of the likely range of ‘rate of change’, temperate forecasts and loss rates for uncertainty analysis.

More recently, a Monte Carlo approach based on Total Probability Theorem (TPT) has been included in the software allowing application of the full range of hydrologic modelling techniques recommended by ARR2019. That is, it now supports all ARR design modelling techniques from a single event (e.g. ARR1987), through the ensemble approach to a full Monte Carlo analysis. Importantly, Monte Carlo approaches have the advantage of more fully defining the spectrum of AEP results in a single analysis. Furthermore, it can support sampling of other hydrologic variables, such as reservoir starting levels from an empirical or theoretical distribution. The Monte Carlo feature with Storm Injector is easy and quick to use and can provide a simple verification of ensemble results or a more advanced toolset for tackling variability in model parameters.

Facilitators: Natural Hazards Research Australia, RMIT University and Macquarie University

Throughout 2022/23, extensive flooding affected large parts of Australia. To gain important insights from the floods to assist preparedness, communications, response and recovery, research was undertaken in South Australia, Victoria and south-western New South Wales following the spring 2022 and summer 2022/23 flooding in the three states; floods that involved rapid-onset flooding (Victoria) and longer lead time riverine flooding (Victoria and South Australia). The purpose of this research was to listen to and learn from the personal stories of people who were impacted or threatened by these floods.

A broad survey was open to anyone who was affected by the 2022/2023 floods in South Australia, Victoria and south-western New South Wales. In-depth interviews were also conducted and focused on different locations, to explore:

• How people responded in areas impacted with short, moderate and longer lead times for floodwater arriving
• the experiences of First Nations peoples
• the experiences of those who are culturally and linguistically diverse.

This workshop will focus on the survey and interview findings from the communities impacted by rapid-onset and slow-onset flooding events. A comparison will be conducted to understand the differences in information flow and exchange, risk perception and evacuation response, and recovery across the communities experiencing either rapid- or slow-onset flooding. An overview presentation of the research findings from this study will be presented. Next, the workshop will work with participants to explore how these findings fit within current practice and what changes need to be made for them to be implemented. Other questions will be explored, including what policies or procedures need to be developed and what other implications exist? Workshop participants will also be asked to consider how these findings change the way they do things, if at all.

This workshop will build on the workshop conducted at the 2023 Floodplain Management Australia conference on companion research from Natural Hazards Research Australia following flooding in New South Wales and Queensland in 2022. It will serve as complimentary insights to attendees of the 2023 workshop, while allowing them to explore the nuances in flood warnings and how communities in other states experienced rapid and slow-onset flooding. However, delegates do not need to have attended the 2023 workshop as no previous knowledge of similar research is required to benefit from the 2025 workshop.